ABOUT THIS BOOK

Not since Ernest Nagel’s 1939 monograph on the theory of probability has there been a comprehensive elementary survey of the philosophical problems of probablity and induction. This is an authoritative and up-to-date treatment of the subject, and yet it is relatively brief and nontechnical.

Hume’s skeptical arguments regarding the justification of induction are taken as a point of departure, and a variety of traditional and contemporary ways of dealing with this problem are considered. The author then sets forth his own criteria of adequacy for interpretations of probability. Utilizing these criteria he analyzes contemporary theories of probability , as well as the older classical and subjective interpretations.

REVIEWS

“An excellent little book. One might disagree with some of its contentions; some will disagree with the whole foundational approach. But Professor Salmon has given us a book of exceptional clarity and conciseness.”
--Isis

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction

I. The Problem of Induction

II. Attempted Solutions

1. Inductive Justification

2. The Complexity of Scientific Inference

3. Deductivism

4. Synthetic A Priori Principles

5. The Principle of Uniformity of Nature

6. The Postulational Approach

7. A Probabilistic Approach

8. Pragmatic Justification

III. Significance of the Problem

IV. The Philosophical Problem of Probability

1. The Probability Calculus

2. Criteria of Adequacy for Interpretations

1. The Classical Interpretation

3. The Logical Interpretation

4. The Personalistic Interpretation

5. The Frequency Interpretation

VI. Inferring Relative Frequencies

VII. The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses

1. Hanson's Logic of Discovery

2. Popper's Method of Corroboration

3. Bayesian Inference

Conclusion

Notes

Addendum

Index

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