Preface
Introduction
Heinz Fassmann and Wiebke Sievers
Assessing migration potential from the MENA region
Migration histories and futures: Patterns and effects
Policies and conflicts: Two incalculable factors influencing
migration
Migration potential: Figures and scenarios
References
Part I Country profiles
1 Euro-Mediterranean migration futures: The cases of Morocco,
Egypt and Turkey
Hein de Haas
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Beyond ‘push-pull’ frameworks: Migration systems and
transitions
1.3 Migration histories: Morocco, Egypt and Turkey
1.4 Recent migration trends
1.5 Development trends and migration futures
1.6 Conclusion
References
2 Migration and development in Egypt
Ayman Zohry
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Demography, the labour market and the political situation
2.3 Egyptian emigration
2.4 Migration and development
2.5 Conclusion
References
3 Turkish emigration and its implications for the sending and
receiving countries
Ahmet İçduygu
3.1 Introduction
3.2 A historical account of Turkish emigration and its
implications
3.3 The economic, social and political consequences of
emigration for Turkey
3.4 The position of Turkish emigrants in Europe
3.5 Conclusion
References
Part II Arena of political regulation and conflicts
4 The European Union’s international-migration relations
towards Middle Eastern and North African countries
Andrew Geddes
4.1 Introduction
4.2 The EU as a political system
4.3 Europe’s international migration relations
4.4 Measures and instruments of EU-MENA migration relations
4.5 Issue linkages
4.6 Conclusion
References
5 Political conflicts and migration in the MENA states
Sigrid Faath and Hanspeter Mattes
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The socio-economic conditions in the MENA states and
migration potential
5.3 The conflict situation in the MENA countries
5.4 Assessment of the conflicts
5.5 Future conflict developments and migration potential
5.6 Final comments
References
6 The uncertainties involved in calculating migration
Franz Nuscheler
6.1 Preface: The methodological problem
6.2 Uncertainties in security policy
6.3 The ‘Islamist threat’: The main source of conflicts and
forced migration?
6.4 The security risks posed by climate change with
subsequent migration
6.5 Hotspots of regional conflict and migration
6.6 Uncertain and rather dismal perspectives
6.7 Conclusions
References
Part III Prognosis, scenarios and forecasts
7 Demographic developments in the MENA region
Ralf E. Ulrich
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Population dynamics of the MENA region
7.3 Future population dynamics: Potential and limitations
7.4 The relevance of the uneven demographic development
7.5 Conclusion
References
8 Estimating migration potential: Egypt, Morocco and Turkey
Heinz Fassmann
8.1 Preliminary remarks
8.2 Methods of estimating migration potential
8.3 Future population
8.4 Demography-driven calculation of the migration potential
8.5 Conclusion
References
9 Migration scenarios: Turkey, Egypt and Morocco
Michael Bommes, Simon Fellmer and Friederike Zigmann
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Methods
9.3 Migration scenarios: Turkey
9.4 Migration scenarios: Egypt
9.5 Migration scenarios: Morocco
9.6 Conclusion
References
List of contributors