Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making
by Howard Raiffa
Harvard University Press, 2002 Cloth: 978-0-674-00890-8 | eISBN: 978-0-674-25571-5 | Paper: 978-0-674-02414-4 Library of Congress Classification HD58.6.R342 2002 Dewey Decimal Classification 658.4052
ABOUT THIS BOOK | TOC
ABOUT THIS BOOK This masterly book substantially extends Howard Raiffa’s earlier classic, The Art and Science of Negotiation. It does so by incorporating three additional supporting strands of inquiry: individual decision analysis, judgmental decision making, and game theory. Each strand is introduced and used in analyzing negotiations.
The book starts by considering how analytically minded parties can generate joint gains and distribute them equitably by negotiating with full, open, truthful exchanges. The book then examines models that disengage step by step from that ideal. It also shows how a neutral outsider (intervenor) can help all negotiators by providing joint, neutral analysis of their problem.
Although analytical in its approach—building from simple hypothetical examples—the book can be understood by those with only a high school background in mathematics. It therefore will have a broad relevance for both the theory and practice of negotiation analysis as it is applied to disputes that range from those between family members, business partners, and business competitors to those involving labor and management, environmentalists and developers, and nations.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part I. Fundamentals 1
1. Decision Perspectives 3
On four approaches to decision making
2. Decision Analysis 14
On how individuals should and could decide
3. Behavioral Decision Theory 33
On the psychology of decisions; on how real people do decide
4. Game Theory 53
On how rational beings should decide separately
in interactive situations
5. Negotiation Analysis 81
On how you should and could collaborate with others
Part II. Two-Party Distributive (Win-Lose) Negotiations 97
6. Elmtree House 99
On setting the stage for adversarial bargaining
7. Distributive Negotiations: The Basic Problem 109
On the essence of noncooperative, win-lose negotiations
8. Introducing Complexities: Uncertainty 129
On deciding to settle out of court
and other problems of choice under uncertainty
9. Introducing Complexities: Time 149
On entrapments and downward escalation;
on real and virtual strikes
10. Auctions and Bids 165
On comparing different auction and competitive bidding procedures
Part III. Two-Party Integrative (Win-Win) Negotiations 191
11. Template Design 195
On brainstorming alone and together; on deciding what must be decided
12. Template Evaluation 213
On deciding what you need and want
13. Template Analysis (I) 226
On finding a joint compromise for a special simple case
14. Template Analysis (II) 249
On finding a joint compromise for the general case
15. Behavioral Realities 269
On learning how people do negotiate in the laboratory
and the real world
16. Noncooperative Others 288
On how to tackle noncooperative adversaries
Part IV. External Help 307
17. Mostly Facilitation and Mediation 311
On helping with people problems
18. Arbitration: Conventional and Nonconventional 328
On how a neutral joint analyst might help
19. What Is Fair? 348
On principles for deciding joint outcomes
20. Parallel Negotiations 365
On negotiating without Negotiating
Part V. Many Parties 385
21. Group Decisions 389
On organizing and managing groups
22. Consensus 407
On how to achieve a shared agreement for all
23. Coalitions 430
On the dynamics of splitting and joining subgroups
24. Voting 450
On anomalies of collective action based on voting schemes
25. Pluralistic Parties 465
On dealing with parties fractured by internal conflict
26. Multiparty Interventions 484
On the role of exteral helpers in multiparty negotiations
27. Social Dilemmas 507
On the conflict between self-interest and group interest
REFERENCES 523
NOTE ON SOURCES 531
INDEX 535
Negotiation Analysis: The Science and Art of Collaborative Decision Making
by Howard Raiffa
Harvard University Press, 2002 Cloth: 978-0-674-00890-8 eISBN: 978-0-674-25571-5 Paper: 978-0-674-02414-4
This masterly book substantially extends Howard Raiffa’s earlier classic, The Art and Science of Negotiation. It does so by incorporating three additional supporting strands of inquiry: individual decision analysis, judgmental decision making, and game theory. Each strand is introduced and used in analyzing negotiations.
The book starts by considering how analytically minded parties can generate joint gains and distribute them equitably by negotiating with full, open, truthful exchanges. The book then examines models that disengage step by step from that ideal. It also shows how a neutral outsider (intervenor) can help all negotiators by providing joint, neutral analysis of their problem.
Although analytical in its approach—building from simple hypothetical examples—the book can be understood by those with only a high school background in mathematics. It therefore will have a broad relevance for both the theory and practice of negotiation analysis as it is applied to disputes that range from those between family members, business partners, and business competitors to those involving labor and management, environmentalists and developers, and nations.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part I. Fundamentals 1
1. Decision Perspectives 3
On four approaches to decision making
2. Decision Analysis 14
On how individuals should and could decide
3. Behavioral Decision Theory 33
On the psychology of decisions; on how real people do decide
4. Game Theory 53
On how rational beings should decide separately
in interactive situations
5. Negotiation Analysis 81
On how you should and could collaborate with others
Part II. Two-Party Distributive (Win-Lose) Negotiations 97
6. Elmtree House 99
On setting the stage for adversarial bargaining
7. Distributive Negotiations: The Basic Problem 109
On the essence of noncooperative, win-lose negotiations
8. Introducing Complexities: Uncertainty 129
On deciding to settle out of court
and other problems of choice under uncertainty
9. Introducing Complexities: Time 149
On entrapments and downward escalation;
on real and virtual strikes
10. Auctions and Bids 165
On comparing different auction and competitive bidding procedures
Part III. Two-Party Integrative (Win-Win) Negotiations 191
11. Template Design 195
On brainstorming alone and together; on deciding what must be decided
12. Template Evaluation 213
On deciding what you need and want
13. Template Analysis (I) 226
On finding a joint compromise for a special simple case
14. Template Analysis (II) 249
On finding a joint compromise for the general case
15. Behavioral Realities 269
On learning how people do negotiate in the laboratory
and the real world
16. Noncooperative Others 288
On how to tackle noncooperative adversaries
Part IV. External Help 307
17. Mostly Facilitation and Mediation 311
On helping with people problems
18. Arbitration: Conventional and Nonconventional 328
On how a neutral joint analyst might help
19. What Is Fair? 348
On principles for deciding joint outcomes
20. Parallel Negotiations 365
On negotiating without Negotiating
Part V. Many Parties 385
21. Group Decisions 389
On organizing and managing groups
22. Consensus 407
On how to achieve a shared agreement for all
23. Coalitions 430
On the dynamics of splitting and joining subgroups
24. Voting 450
On anomalies of collective action based on voting schemes
25. Pluralistic Parties 465
On dealing with parties fractured by internal conflict
26. Multiparty Interventions 484
On the role of exteral helpers in multiparty negotiations
27. Social Dilemmas 507
On the conflict between self-interest and group interest
REFERENCES 523
NOTE ON SOURCES 531
INDEX 535