Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Contents
Figures and Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Blunders
A Brief History of Blunders
Strategic Decisionmaking
Models of Reality
Blunders and Information
Structure of the Study
Conclusion
Chapter Two: The Information Value Chain and the Use of Information for Strategic Decisionmaking
The Information Value Chain
Information and Strategic Blunders
Technology and the Information Value Chain
Individuals and Institutions in the Information Value Chain
Road Map
Man of Destiny
The Russia Problem
Planning for the Best
Hunger, Cold, and Cossacks
Flawed Model of Reality
He Could Have Known Better
Looking for the Right War
Late Nineteenth-Century America and Its Ambitions
The War with Great Britain That Wasn’t
Targeting Spain
The Decision
The Decisionmaking and What to Learn from It
Germany’s Dilemma
Kaiser in a Corner
The Military Prevails—Germany Loses
The Worst of All Options
Ending American Neutrality
Wilson Hesitates, Maneuvers, Then Decides
Realism and Idealism
Reluctant but Right
Hitler’s Momentous Mistake
Reversing Defeat and Gazing to the East
The Decision for Operation Barbarossa
From Victory to Defeat
Understanding Hitler and His Environment
A Flawed Theory of Success
Conclusion
Chapter Eight: Japan’s Attack on Pearl Harbor, 1941
Imperial Japan Colonizes China
U.S. Backlash
Fateful Decision
Moves Toward War
Decisionmaking in Tokyo
Japan’s Flawed Model of Success
Conclusion
The Makings of U.S.-Soviet Confrontation
The Fate of the Third Army
Anatomy of Decision
Success
Getting It Right
Mitigated Blunder
The Road to War
The Decision to Punish Vietnam
Assessing the War
Deng as Decisionmaker
The Beginning of the End
Monumental Mistake
Mission Creep, Soviet Style
What Were They Thinking?
Failure to Imagine What Would Happen
Counterrevolution in Poland
From a Reluctant Yes to a Maybe to an Adamant No
Conversion on the Road to Warsaw
The Days and Years to Follow
Were the Soviets Thinking Straight?
Lessons for Strategic Decisionmaking
As Bad as a Blunder Can Be
Argentine Fury and Folly
In a Trap of Their Own Making
Unhinged from Reality
Rational but Wrong
Dividends of Misjudgment
A Vision of Regime Change and Doctrine of Preemptive War
Hawks, Doves, Diplomats, and the Decider
Shaping Intelligence and Selling a War
Successful Combat and Failed Preparation for Later
Why It Went Wrong
Assessing the Cases
What Have We Learned About the Supply and Use of Information?
Discounting Risks, Writing Scripts, Counting on Control
Families of Blunders
Decisionmaker, Heal Thyself
Ensuring Objectivity and Confronting Complexity
Prescriptions
Assessing Remedies
Chapter Seventeen: The Sino-U.S. Case
Chinese and American Models of Strategic Reality
Models and Flash Points
It Could Take Both to Blunder
Remedies
Conclusions
Findings
Recommendations
Conclusions
Notes
Bibliography
