Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Contents
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
CHAPTER ONE: Understanding Deterrence and Dissuasion
Defining Deterrence and Dissuasion
A Comprehensive Approach to Preventing Aggression: Strategies of Dissuasion
Key Distinctions
Intentions, Rationality, and Perception
The Choice to Initiate Aggression: Messy, Gradual, and Emergent
CHAPTER TWO: Effective Deterrence and Dissuasion: A Framework for Analysis
Challenges in Determining What Prevents Aggression
Category One: How Intensely Motivated Is the Aggressor?
Category Two: Is the Defender Clear and Explicit Regarding What It Seeks to Prevent and What Actions It Will Take in Response?
Category Three: Does the Potential Aggressor View the Defender’s Threats as Credible and Intimidating?
Summary and Proposed Framework for Deterrence Effectiveness
Quantitative Assessment of U.S. Extended Deterrence Cases Since 1945
Qualitative Assessment: In-Depth Extended Deterrence Case Studies
A Revised Framework of Factors Associated with Deterrence Success
CHAPTER FOUR: Applying the Revised Framework: Deterring Russia in the Baltic Region
How Motivated Is Russia?
How Clear and Explicit Is the U.S. Deterrent Message?
Is the U.S. Deterrent Message Credible and Convincing?
Conclusion
CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusions, Recommendations, and Implications for the U.S. Army
Recommendations
Implications for the U.S. Army
A. Quantitative Analysis: Cases of U.S. Extended Deterrence Since 1945
B. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Berlin
C. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Deterring Saddam, 1990
D. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: NATO’s Northern Flank in the Cold War
E. Qualitative Case Study Analyses: Russian Aggression Against Georgia
Bibliography