In 1965, Royal Dutch Shell started experimenting with a new approach to preparing for the future. This approach, called scenario planning, eschewed forecasting in favor of plausible alternative stories. By using stories, or Ÿscenarios,Œ Shell aimed to avoid the false assumption that the future would look much like the present“an assumption that marred most corporate planning at the time. The Essence of Scenarios offers unmatched insight into the company’s innovative practice, which still has a huge influence on the way businesses, governments, and other organizations think about and plan for the future.In the course of their research, Angela Wilkinson and Roland Kupers interviewed almost every living veteran of the Shell scenario planning operation, along with many top Shell executives from later periods. Drawing on these interviews, the authors identify several principles that characterize the Shell process and explain how it has survived and thrived for so long. They also enumerate the qualities of successful Shell scenarios, which above all must be plausible stories with logical trajectories. Ultimately, Wilkinson and Kupers demonstrate the value of scenario planning as a sustained practice, rather than as a one-off exercise.

Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team.Roland Kupers is an associate fellow in the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford.

Acknowledgements 7Preface by Peter Ho 9Introduction: The ŸGentle ArtŒ 13Sources 17I A Unique Legacy 19II Shell Scenarios — A History, 1965-2013 25Experimentation and Emergence, 1965-1981 25Moving Closer to the Business, 1982-1990 44Culture Change, 1990-1999 51Cheaper, Deeper Thinking, 1999-2006 58New Pathways to ‘Challenging and Heard’, 2006-2013 67III The Essence of the Shell Art 751 Improving Intuition 772 Plausible, Not Probable 803 Striking the Balance Between Relevant and Challenging 844 Pragmatic, Not Ideological 855 Realizing the Role of the Future in the Present 886 Focused and Targeted 897 Engaging the Client in the Process 918 Memorable, Yet Disposable 939 Storytelling — the Heart of Strategic Conversation 9510 The Necessity of Numbers 9711 The Creation of a Scenario Team 10112 Serving as Door-Openers and Adding Value to External Relationships 10413 Fostering a Culture of Openness and Curiosity 10614 Managing Disagreement as an Asset 10815 Providing Value within a Broader Management System 109IV Looking Ahead 113From ‘Seeing’ to ‘Seeding’, Not Growing Better Futures 114Beyond Products to Value-Added Services 115The Future of Shell Scenarios 117Business Lens 121Reaching Out 122V Conclusion 123The Evolution Continues — the Essence Remains 127Epilogue: Scenario Team Leaders 131Afterword 135A Timeline 137B Summary of Scenarios 139Index 167