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6 books match the query 'Rational expectations (Economic theory)'

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A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics

Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models

Frederic S. Mishkin

University of Chicago Press, 1983

A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.

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Economics and the Antagonism of Time

Time, Uncertainty, and Choice in Economic Theory

Douglas Vickers

University of Michigan Press, 1994

Presenting a rigorous examination of the place and significance of time in economic theory, Douglas Vickers takes up the interrelated issues of uncertainty, ignorance, and criteria of choice. In the discussion of these questions he explains that the conventional thought-forms of probability are not generally applicable to theory-building in economics. To remedy this he provides a completely new paradigm of choice.The extent to which time has influenced, or been excluded from, economic theory is discussed on four levels: the banishment of time in general equilibrium theory; the incorporation of logical time, in pseudotemporal dynamic analysis in some widely adopted mathematically structured systems; the construction of ceteris paribus dynamics based on conventionally determined behavior; and the analysis of in-time economics, or the results of incorporating into economic theorizing historic time, ignorance, and uncertainty in a nonprobabilistic sense. A scheme of choice and decision making is presented that incorporates the concept of “potential surprise” in place of probability.Economic theorists and scholars in related disciplines will appreciate the originality of the book’s critique of the neoclassical system; its tracing of some of the most relevant intellectual history that sets off the traditions of Keynes and the post-Keynesians from the neoclassical system; the clarification of the meaning of—and the dissent from—probability theorizing in economics; and the treatment of the relevant epistemological foundations of the subject.

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Insights in Decision Making

A Tribute to Hillel J. Einhorn

Edited by Robin M. Hogarth

University of Chicago Press, 1990

How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions.

The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field.

The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior.

Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

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Rational Choice

Edited by Robin M. Hogarth and Melvin W. Reder

University of Chicago Press, 1987

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Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice

Volume 1

Robert E. Lucas Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent, Editors

University of Minnesota Press, 1981

Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice was first published in 1981. Minnesota Archive Editions uses digital technology to make long-unavailable books once again accessible, and are published unaltered from the original University of Minnesota Press editions.

Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed.

This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies.

Robert E. Lucas, Jr., is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Thomas J. Sargent is professor of economics at the University of Minnesota and adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.

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