We are running out of water, robots will take our jobs, we are eating ourselves to an early death, old age pension and health systems are bankrupting governments, and an immigration crisis is unravelling the European integration project. A growing number of nightmares, perfect storms, and global catastrophes create fear of the future. One response is technocratic optimism — we’ll invent our way out of these impending crises. Or we’ll simply ignore them as politically too hot to handle, too uncomfortable for experts — denied until crisis hits. History is littered with late lessons from early warnings. Cynicism is an excuse for inaction. Populism flourishes in the depths of despair. Despite the gloom, there is another way to look at the future. We don’t have to be pessimistic or optimistic — we can find realistic hope.This book is written by an international and influential collection of future shapers. It is aimed at anyone who is interested in learning to refresh the present, forge new common ground, and redesign the future.

Angela Wilkinson, PhD (Physics), is Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford and former Director of Foresight for the OECD. She is a recognised and respected global leading scholar and practitioner in scenario planning and foresight. She spent a decade in Shell's global scenario team.Betty Sue Flowers, PhD (Literature), is Professor Emeritus at UT-Austin and former Director of the Johnson Presidential Library. She has served as a moderator for executive seminars at the Aspen Institute, consultant for NASA, CIA, and the Secretary of the Navy, and scenario writer for organizations including Shell, the OAS, Eskom, IPIECA, and the WBCSD.

Foreword: Realising HopeGed R. Davis, former Managing Director, World Economic Forum (Davos) and co-author, Catalytic GovernanceIntroduction: Building Better Futures1. Making Globalisation WorkCarl Dahlman, former Head of Research, Development Centre, OECD2. Energy: A Better Life with a Healthy PlanetJeremy Bentham, Vice President, Global Business Environment and Head of Shell Scenarios, Royal Dutch Shell 3. Are Major Wars More Likely in the Future?Joëlle Jenny, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University and former Director for Security Policy and Conflict Prevention, EU External Action ServiceAlyssa Stalsberg Canelli, Assistant Director, Experiential Learning and Teaching, Brandeis University4. The Future of WorkPeter Schwartz Senior Vice President Strategic Planning, Salesforce.com and author of Inevitable Surprises. 5. Digital Technologies: Every Cloud has a Silver LiningClaire Naughtin, Research Scientist, Strategic Foresight, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Data61Stefan Hajkowicz, Principal Scientist, Strategic Foresight, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Data61 and author, Making Globalisation Work6. Cities to the Rescue: A New Scale for Dealing with Climate ChangeTim O'Riordan, Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia and head of the sustainability policy programme for the British AcademyViviana M. Jiménez, researcher, UN Environment Programme and the University of OxfordKeith Clarke, CBE, Chair of Future Cities Catapult and Chair of Forum for the Future7. The Future of Global PovertyClaudia Juech, Executive Director, Cloudera Foundation and former Managing Director of Strategic Insights, Rockefeller FoundationChukwudi Onike, Program Associate for Strategic Insights, Rockefeller Foundation 8. Transcending Boundaries - the Realistic Hope for WaterAlejandro Litovsky, Chief Executive, Earth Security Group 9. Health Systems: Doomed to Fail or about to be Saved by a Copernican Shift?Kristel Van der Elst, CEO of The Global Foresight Group and former Head of Strategic Foresight, World Economic Forum (Davos)Rudi Pauwels, Founder and President, Praesens Foundation, and co-founder, Biocartis, Tibotec, Virco, and Galapagos Genomics 10. Seeding the Future: Challenges to Global Food SystemsAriella Helfgott, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University and Senior Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of OxfordJoost Vervoort, Copernicus Institute, Utrecht University and Senior Researcher, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford11. The Great Livestock Trade-off: Food Production, Poverty Alleviation, and Climate ChangeLuke York, PhD, School of Agriculture, Policy, and Development, University of ReadingClaire Heffernan, Director, London's International Development Centre 12. Rethinking Economics for Global ChallengesChristian Kastrop, Program Director, Bertelsmann Foundation and former Director, Policy Studies Branch, OECD13. Leadership and the Future of Democratic SocietiesMartin Mayer, co-founder, YouMeOVerena Ringler, Stiftung Mercator 14. Prototyping the Future: A New Approach to Whole-of-Society VisioningAlenka Smerkolj, minister responsible for strategic planning and development, Government of Slovenia Timotej †oo¿, National Development Strategy Lead, Government of SloveniaFive Principles of Realistic HopeAngela Wilkinson and Betty Sue FlowersEpilogue: From the Eclipse of Utopia to the Restoration of HopeJay Ogilvy, Co-founder, Global Business NetworkAcknowledgementsIndex