BiblioVault - Books about Uncertain World

Defensive Internationalism

Providing Public Goods in an Uncertain World

Davis B. Bobrow and Mark A. Boyer

University of Michigan Press, 2005

"The authors' carefully crafted analysis will influence thought and the policy debate on the tradeoff between unilateralism and multilateralism for decades to come."
-Todd Sandler, Robert R. and Katheryn A. Dockson Professor of International Relations & Economics, University of Southern California

"Boyer and Bobrow's well-written, data-rich analysis of such pressing issues as development assistance, debt management, UN peacekeeping, and environmental protection makes Defensive Internationalism a highly original and provocative contribution to the study of global governance."
-Yale H. Ferguson, Co-Director, Center for Global Change and Governance, Rutgers University

In this pathbreaking study, authors Davis B. Bobrow and Mark A. Boyer argue for "muted optimism" about the future of international cooperation. Leaders of a growing movement that integrates constructivism into traditional international studies concepts and methods, Bobrow and Boyer analyze four key international issues: development cooperation, debt management, peacekeeping operations, and environmental affairs. Their approach integrates elements of public goods theory, identity theory, new institutionalism, and rational choice. Defensive Internationalism is a well-written, creative and coherent synthesis of ideas that have up to now been considered irreconcilable. It is appropriate for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in international relations, conflict studies, and political economy, and promises to become a foundational work in its field.

Davis B. Bobrow is Professor of Public and International Affairs and Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

Mark A. Boyer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Connecticut.

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Eco-pragmatism

Making Sensible Environmental Decisions in an Uncertain World

Daniel A. Farber

University of Chicago Press, 1999

Eco-pragmatism takes on the most critical controversies in environmental law today: how to weigh economic costs against environmental quality and human life, how to assess the long time horizons of environmental problems, and how to make appropriate decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty about the scope of environmental problems.

"A comprehensive well-argued effort to address many of the most difficult issues facing legislators concerned with environmental issues."—Stephen P. Adamian, Boston Book Review

"A timely and well-argued contribution."—Calestous Juma, Nature

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Public Policy in an Uncertain World

Analysis and Decisions

Charles F. Manski

Harvard University Press, 2013

Public policy advocates routinely assert that “research has shown” a particular policy to be desirable. But how reliable is the analysis in the research they invoke? And how does that analysis affect the way policy is made, on issues ranging from vaccination to minimum wage to FDA drug approval? Charles Manski argues here that current policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. By failing to account for uncertainty in an unpredictable world, policy analysis misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Public Policy in an Uncertain World critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve how policy research is conducted and how policy makers use research.

Consumers of policy analysis, whether civil servants, journalists, or concerned citizens, need to understand research methodology well enough to properly assess reported findings. In the current model, policy researchers base their predictions on strong assumptions. But as Manski demonstrates, strong assumptions lead to less credible predictions than weaker ones. His alternative approach takes account of uncertainty and thereby moves policy analysis away from incredible certitude and toward honest portrayal of partial knowledge. Manski describes analysis of research on such topics as the effect of the death penalty on homicide, of unemployment insurance on job-seeking, and of preschooling on high school graduation. And he uses other real-world scenarios to illustrate the course he recommends, in which policy makers form reasonable decisions based on partial knowledge of outcomes, and journalists evaluate research claims more closely, with a skeptical eye toward expressions of certitude.

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Quantum Legacies

Dispatches from an Uncertain World

David Kaiser

University of Chicago Press, 2024

A series of engaging essays that explore iconic moments of discovery and debate in physicists’ ongoing quest to understand the quantum world.

The ideas at the root of quantum theory remain stubbornly, famously bizarre: a solid world reduced to puffs of probability; particles that tunnel through walls; cats suspended in zombielike states, neither alive nor dead; and twinned particles that share entangled fates. For more than a century, physicists have grappled with these conceptual uncertainties while enmeshed in the larger uncertainties of the social and political worlds around them, a time pocked by the rise of fascism, cataclysmic world wars, and a new nuclear age.

In Quantum Legacies, David Kaiser introduces readers to iconic episodes in physicists’ still-unfolding quest to understand space, time, and matter at their most fundamental. In a series of vibrant essays, Kaiser takes us inside moments of discovery and debate among the great minds of the era—Albert Einstein, Erwin Schrödinger, Stephen Hawking, and many more who have indelibly shaped our understanding of nature—as they have tried to make sense of a messy world.

Ranging across space and time, the episodes span the heady 1920s, the dark days of the 1930s, the turbulence of the Cold War, and the peculiar political realities that followed. In those eras as in our own, researchers’ ambition has often been to transcend the vagaries of here and now, to contribute lasting insights into how the world works that might reach beyond a given researcher’s limited view. In Quantum Legacies, Kaiser unveils the difficult and unsteady work required to forge some shared understanding between individuals and across generations, and in doing so, he illuminates the deep ties between scientific exploration and the human condition.

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Sense and Uncertainty

A Phenomenology of Rational Actions in an Uncertain World

Esteban Marín-Ávila

Ohio University Press, 2025

Sense and Uncertainty presents a phenomenological account of the possibility of rational action amid the challenges posed by violence, volatile conditions, uncertain outcomes, and social dependence. The book asks us to consider the following:

We are often forced through violence to do things that do not make sense for us except to avoid retaliations, punishments, or the various evils that others might inflict on us.
We inhabit a world that escapes our control. This involves living in uncertainty concerning the things that we might suffer and do, that is, the things that might happen to us and the results of our actions.
We are dependent on others and collaborate with them in ways that make it impossible to fully understand the sense of our own actions and practical intentions.

Rationality involves insightful thinking about the world and our emotional responses to it, something we do in our everyday lives, whether consciously or without awareness. Sense and Uncertainty attempts to make explicit and to clarify the implications of this conceptually neglected aspect of our rationality: namely, that it involves paying attention to our emotions and values. An ethical life in which we can act meaningfully in the face of violence and uncertainty, and in which we can make sense of our vulnerability and dependence on others, demands that we think about and seek insight into how we love, why we hope, and in whom or in what we trust. The phenomenological ethics presented in Sense and Uncertainty draws on the works of Western canonical philosophers like Edmund Husserl, Max Scheler, Simone de Beauvoir, Anthony Steinbock, and José Ortega y Gasset, as well as on those of Latin American thinkers such as Luis Villoro, Rita Segato, and Augusto Salazar Bondy, among others.

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Sustainable Thinking

Ensuring Your Library's Future in an Uncertain World

Rebekkah Smith Aldrich

American Library Association, 2018

Tales from an Uncertain World

What Other Assorted Disasters Can Teach Us About Climate Change

L. S. Gardiner

University of Iowa Press, 2018

So far, humanity hasn’t done very well in addressing the ongoing climate catastrophe. Veteran science educator L. S. Gardiner believes we can learn to do better by understanding how we’ve dealt with other types of environmental risks in the past and why we are dragging our feet in addressing this most urgent emergency. Weaving scientific facts and research together with humor and emotion, Gardiner explores human responses to erosion, earthquakes, fires, invasive species, marine degradation, volcanic eruptions, and floods in order to illuminate why we find it so challenging to deal with climate change. Insight emerges from unexpected places—a mermaid exhibit, a Magic 8 Ball, and midcentury cartoons about a future that never came to be.

Instead of focusing on the economics and geopolitics of the debate over climate change, this book brings large-scale disaster to a human scale, emphasizing the role of the individual. We humans do have the capacity to deal with disasters. When we face threatening changes, we don’t just stand there pretending it isn’t so, we do something. But because we’re human, our responses aren’t always the right ones the first time—yet we can learn to do better. This book is essential reading for all who want to know how we can draw on our strengths to survive the climate catastrophe and forge a new relationship with nature.

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The Uncertain World of Renaissance Geneva and Savoy

Political Life, Factional Conflicts and Religious Turmoil

Mathieu Caesar

Amsterdam University Press, 2025

Uncertainty and instability affected Geneva and the Duchy of Savoy since the mid-fifteenth century. French and Swiss expansionism had turned Savoy into part of a long geopolitical fault line, running from the North Sea to the Mediterranean along the border between France and the Empire. In Geneva, and partially in other towns of Piedmont and the Pays de Vaud, this instability fuelled urban factionalism, confessional conflicts, but also wider discussions about the ways in which society could be reformed. Conflicts were, in the end, the consequence of a struggle about the best political and religious option to reduce uncertainty. The Uncertain World of Renaissance Geneva and Savoy looks at how political life worked in a time of great instability, seeking to answer a straightforward—but not easy—question: how did people face and react to political and religious uncertainty?

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