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The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth.

Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades.

Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.

Recently, real and artificial barriers to international transactions have fallen sharply, causing a rise in the overall volume of international trade. East Asia has been particularly affected by the economic stresses and gains derived from deregulation. Deregulation and Interdependence in the Asia-Pacific Region explores the broadly similar experiences of certain economies in the region—China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea—in dealing with the potentially volatile process of deregulation, and examines the East Asian response to a rapidly transforming economic environment.

In the 1980s, the formerly planned markets of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the developing nations of Latin America and East Asia embarked upon unprecedented efforts to alter their economic regimes. These first-stage reforms involved a major reconceptualization of the principal elements of the economy, private property, and trade. But in the wake of these reforms, the need for second-stage reforms—the implementation of more structural changes—arose; without the development of new regulatory agencies, tax reform initiatives, adjustments to trade policies, and enhancements in education, labor, and telecommunications, the prospects for economic growth engendered during the first-stage reforms might not be realized.

Economic Policy Reform: The Second Stage provides an incisive overview of the context of these crucial second-stage reforms with a thorough examination of the issues confronting the policymakers involved. Edited by Anne O. Krueger, it features studies from distinguished experts in various fields of economics. Each chapter of this book addresses a key issue in economic policy, examines the progress of reforms in the markets considered, and then explores what research might further aid leaders as they embark on fundamental changes.

Both a handbook for economists and practitioners and a theoretical exploration of the most significant challenges currently facing the economic world, this new book will be indispensable to anyone involved in the global economic scene.

Contributors:
Vittorio Corbo
Cimon Cowan
Sebastian Edwards
Stephan Haggard
Michael Kremer
Steven Matusz
Frederic S. Mishkin
Jonathan Morduch
Roger G. Noll
Miguel A. Savastano
T. Paul Shultz
Mary M. Shirley
T.N. Srinivasan
Joseph E. Stiglitz
Vito Tanzi
David Tarr
Aaron Tornell

India is the second most populous country in the world and also one of the poorest. From the late 1940s to 1980, India's per capita income grew at an average annual rate of only two percent. Expansionist economic reforms during the 1980s boosted economic growth but also unfortunately resulted in high inflation and a balance of payments crisis. As a consequence, in 1991 the government announced sweeping new changes in economic policies.

Economic Policy Reforms and the Indian Economy evaluates the effects of those changes and identifies areas of the Indian economy still in urgent need of reform. After an overview of Indian economic policies and development since independence, papers focus on the country's fiscal situation, the environment for private economic activity, education, the reservation of certain activities for small-scale industry, and determinants of differentials in rates of growth across the different Indian states. Contributors include respected academic specialists on India and policy reform, high-level Indian administrators, and present and past policymakers.

The increased mobility and volume of international capital flows is a striking trend in international finance. While countries worldwide have engaged in financial deregulation, nowhere is this pattern more pronounced than in East Asia, where it has affected in unanticipated ways the behavior of exchange rates, interest rates, and capital flows.

In these thirteen essays, American and Asian scholars analyze the effects of financial deregulation and integration on East Asian markets. Topics covered include the roles of the United States and Japan in trading with Asian countries, macroeconomic policy implications of export-led growth in Korea and Taiwan, the effects of foreign direct investment in China, and the impact of financial liberalization in Japan, Korea, and Singapore.

Demonstrating the complexity of financial deregulation and the challenges it poses for policy makers, this volume provides an excellent picture of the overall status of East Asian financial markets for scholars in international finance and Asian economic development.

Over the last twenty-five years, there has been an acceleration in the move from government regulation towards privatization. Governance, Regulation, and Privatization in the Asia-Pacific Region is the first thoroughgoing account of the relative success of the different approaches to privatization as undertaken in Korea, China, Australia, and Japan.

In most contexts, privatization is expected to yield greater efficiency and cost effectiveness while avoiding the corruption and bloated budgets of government regulation or monopoly control. But broad-scale privatization, if ill designed, has also yielded its share of difficulties in East Asia. Privatization sometimes has created a vacuum in corporate governance for some of the region's most important industries and in some cases merely reinstated the monopoly-like configurations. The papers presented in this book discuss the experiences of privatization in several industries, including railroad and telecom, corporate governance problems, accounting issues, and challenges for the future in East Asian countries.

The first section is theoretical in nature and proposes boundaries among government protection, market freedom, and shareholder expectations. The second part is constituted by country case studies, beginning with an analysis of both the Korean financial crisis that followed its 1997 law to privatize large, public sector corporations and the new ways Korean corporations finance themselves. Following is an evaluation of China's approach to privatization, with an in-depth look at the financial transitions of companies slated for initial public offering.

Providing provocative examples of the methods of privatization in the Asia-Pacific region specifically, these papers will be of huge import to any economist or policymaker interested in transposing those successes for their own region.

The contributors to this volume analyze the growth experiences of Japan, Korea, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan in light of the recently developed endogenous growth theory to provide an understanding of the economic boom in East Asia.

The theory explored in this volume attributes the phenomenal economic success of these countries to, among other factors, the role of an outward orientation—a focus on exporting rather than on protecting home markets. In addition, the importance of exchange rate behavior, of the supportive role of government policy, and of the accumulation and promotion of physical and human capital are explored in detail. This collection also examines the extent to which growth in each country became self-sustaining once it began.

Demonstrating the relevance of endogenous growth theory for studying this important region, this fourth volume in the NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics series will be of interest to observers of East Asian affairs.

Hidden behind a number of economic crises in the mid- to late 1990s-including Argentina's headline-grabbing monetary and political upheaval-is that fact that Latin American economies have, generally speaking, improved dramatically in recent years. Their success has been due, in large part, to macroeconomic reforms, and this book brings together prominent economists and policymakers to assess a decade of such policy shifts, highlighting both the many success stories and the areas in which further work is needed. Contributors offer both case studies of individual countries and regional overviews, covering monetary, financial, and fiscal policy.

Contributors also work to identify future concerns and erect clear signposts for future reforms. For instance, now that inflation rates have been stabilized, one suggested "second stage" monetary reform would be to focus on reducing rates from high to low single digits. Financial sector reforms, it is suggested, should center on improving regulation and supervision. And, contributors argue, since fiscal stability has already been achieved in most countries, new fiscal reforms need to concentrate on institutionalizing fiscal discipline, improving the efficiency and equity of tax collection, and modifying institutional arrangements to deal with increasingly decentralized federal systems.

The analysis and commentary in this volume-authored not only by academic observers but by key Latin American policymakers with decades of firsthand experience-will prove important to anyone with an interest in the future of Latin American's continuing economic development and reform.

Contributors to this volume:

José Antonio González, Stanford University
Anne O. Krueger, International Monetary Fund
Vittorio Corbo, Pontifical Catholic University, Chile
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile
Alejandro Werner, Bank of Mexico
Márcio G. P. Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University, Rio
Tatiana Didier, World Bank
Gustavo H. B. Franco, former president, Central Bank of Brazil
Francisco Gil Díaz, Minister of the Treasury, Mexico
Roberto Zahler, former governor, Central Bank of Chile
Ricardo J. Caballero, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Philip L. Brock, University of Washington
Stephen Haber, Stanford University
Pablo E. Guidotti, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires
Vito Tanzi, International Monetary Fund
Enrique Dávila, Ministry of Finance, Mexico
Santiago Levy, Mexican Social Security Institute
Ricardo Fenochietto, private consultant, Buenos Aires
Rogério L. F. Werneck, Pontifical Catholic University, Rio
Carola Pessino, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Buenos Aires
Michael Michaely, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

This volume explores East Asia's macroeconomic experience in the 1980s and the economic impact of East Asia's growth on the rest of the world. The authors explore the causes of capital flows, changes in trade balances, and exchange rate fluctuations in East Asia and their effects on other countries.

These fourteen papers are organized around four themes: the overall determinants of growth and trading relations in the East Asian region; monetary policies in relation to capital controls and capital accounts; the impact of exchange rate behavior on industrial structure; and the potential for greater regional integration. The contributors examine interactions among exchange rate movements, trade balances, and capital flows; how government monetary policy affects capital flows; the effect of exchange rates on industrial structure, inventories, and prices; and the extent of regional integration in East Asia.

Developing countries typically have wage rates that are a small fraction of those in developed countries. Trade theories traditionally attributed this difference to two factors: the relative abundance of the labor supply in the two countries and the relative value of the goods produced. These factors, however, inadequately explain the full differential in almost every comparison of developed and developing countries since the second World War.

Providing an important and original perspective for understanding both the development process and policies aimed at raising the standard of living in poorer nations, Perspectives on Trade and Development gathers sixteen of Anne O. Krueger's most important essays on international trade and development economics. Her essays discuss the relationships between trade strategies and development; the links between factor endowments, developing countries' policies, and trade strategies in terms of their growth; the role of economic policy in development; and the international economic environment in which development efforts are taking place. Her analyses are extended to trade and development policies generally, and account for a substantial part of the residue unexplained by past theories. This insightful contribution by an influential scholar will be essential reading for all scholars of trade and development.

The volume of capital flows between industrial and developing countries has grown dramatically in the past decade and has become a major issue in a world that is increasingly "globalized." Here Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, two leading experts on this topic, have assembled a group of scholars who address different types of capital flows—bank lending, bonds, direct foreign investment—and the implications they hold for economic performance. With its particular focus on the Asian financial crises, this work presents a new model for policy makers everywhere in thinking about the role of private capital flows.

There is no doubt that the open multilateral trading system after World War II was a key ingredient in the rapid economic development of the entire world. Especially in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, exports increased dramatically both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GNP. In the 1980s, however, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) began to emerge as significant factors affecting world trade. This volume contains thirteen papers that analyze the tensions between multilateral trading systems and preferential trade arrangements and the impact of these tensions on East Asia. The first four chapters introduce PTAs conceptually and focus on the unique political issues that these agreements involve. The next five essays present more direct empirical analyses of existing PTAs and their economic effects, primarily in East Asia. The last four papers concentrate on the outcomes of individual East Asian nations' trading policies in specific instances of preferential agreements.

Exploring the political and economic determinants of trade protection, this study provides a wealth of information on key American industries and documents the process of seeking and conferring protection.

Eight analytical histories of the automobile, steel, semiconductor, lumber, wheat, and textile and apparel industries demonstrate that trade barriers rarely have unequivocal benefits and may be counterproductive. They show that criteria for awarding protection do not take into account the interests of consumers or other industries and that political influence and an organized lobby are major sources of protection.

Based on these findings, a final essay suggests that current policy fails to consider adequately economic efficiency, the public good, and indirect negative effects. This volume will interest scholars in economics, business, and public policy who deal with trade issues.

The rapid emergence of East Asia as an important geopolitical-economic entity has been one of the most visible and striking changes in the international economy in recent years. With that emergence has come an increased need for understanding the problems of interdependence. As a step toward meeting this need, the National Bureau of Economic Research joined with the Korea Development Institute to sponsor this volume, which focuses on the complexities of tax reform in a global economy.

Experts from Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines, Japan, and Thailand, as well as the United States, Canada, and Israel examine the major tax programs of the 1980s and their domestic and international economic effects. The analyses reveal similarities between the United States and countries in East Asia in political constraints on policy making, and taken together they show how growing interdependence interacts with domestic economic and political concerns to affect issues as politically vital as tax reform. Economists, policymakers, and members of the business community will benefit from these studies.

This clear, concise summary of the in-depth analyses presented in The Political Economy of American Trade Policy examines the level, form, and evolution of American trade protection.

In case studies of trade barriers imposed during the 1980s to help the steel, semiconductor, automobile, lumber, wheat, and textile and apparel industries, the contributors trace the evolution of efforts to obtain protection, protectionist measures, and their results. A chapter assessing the common themes that emerge from the studies concludes that the focus of current trade law is exclusively on the individual protection-seeking industries, with little regard for indirect effects on using industries or for consumers. Reform could usefully take these effects into account.

This volume will interest policymakers, business executives, and anyone interested in trade policy formulation and practice.

The international flow of long-term private capital has increased dramatically in the 1990s. In fact, many policymakers now consider private foreign capital to be an essential resource for the acceleration of economic growth. This volume focuses attention on the microeconomic determinants and effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the East Asian region, allowing researchers to explore the overall structure of FDI, to offer case studies of individual countries, and to consider their insights, both general and particular, within the context of current economic theory.

The trade policies addressed in this book have far-reaching effects on the world's increasingly interdependent economies, but until now little research has been devoted to them. This volume represents the first systematic effort to analyze specific U.S. trade policies, particularly nontariff measures. It provides a better understanding of how trade policies operate, how effective they are, and what their costs and benefits are to trading nations.

The contributors chart the history of U.S. trade policy since World War II, analyze industry-specific trade barriers, and discuss the effects of tariff preferences and export-promoting policies such as export credits and domestic international sales corporations (DISCs). The final section of essays examines the worldwide impact of import policies, pointing out subtleties in industry-specific policies and providing insight into the levels of protection in developing countries. The contributors blend state-of-the-art economics with language that is accessible to the business community, economists, and policymakers. Commentaries accompany each paper.

In this volume, some of the world's foremost authorities analyze the many challenges and opportunities confronting the WTO, addressing issues such as national policies, labor standards, and the environment. Presuming no technical background in economics, this is a comprehensive introduction to the WTO's place in the global economy and will appeal to anyone interested in world trade.
"[T]his book is a tour de force, with consistently fine papers by leading experts, and it is worthy of any bookshelf." —Joel P. Trachtman, American Journal of International Law

"This latest conference volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research is likely to be the definitive reference work on the WTO for years to come. . . . Specialists and non-specialists alike will gain a great deal from a careful reading of this impressive volume." —John Ravenhill, Australian Journal of Political Science

"For anyone who is interested in the further development of the rule system for the world economy, this book is a must." —Horst Siebert, Review of World Economics

This first book of a three-volume study examines the way trade policies in developing countries affect the level and composition of employment. There is special emphasis on the effects of import substitution policies that attempt to make a country self-sufficient by producing local substitutes for imports, as compared with policies that further the expansion of imports.

Ten countries are studied: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, the Ivory Coast, Pakistan, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, and Uruguay. The contributors to the volume analyze the link between trade strategies and employment within a common framework, and the analyses of trade policy include the level and structure of protection, the relation of trade policy to labor demand, the labor intensiveness of trade, and the extent of distortions in factor markets and their effects on trade.

Factor Supply and Substitution, the second in a three-volume study entitled Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, extends the analysis of trade regimes and employment both in depth for single countries and through cross-country analyses. It provides important new evidence of the effects of different trade policies and of the effects of the various factors that make up these policies—exchange rates, wages, social insurance and other taxes, credit, prices, and so on. All six studies reflect a carefully coordinated research strategy that has been carried out by a first-rate team. The researchers combine technical expertise with specialized knowledge of the individual countries.

The NBER project on alternative trade strategies and employment analyzed the extent to which employment and income distribution are affected by the choice of trade strategies and by the interaction of trade policies with domestic policies and market distortions. This book, the third and final volume to come from that project, brings together the theory underlying the trade strategies-employment relation and the empirical evidence emanating from the project.

During the first three decades following the Second World War, an increasingly open international trading system led to unprecedented economic growth throughout the world. But in recent years, that openness has been threatened by increased protectionism, regional trading arrangements—Europe 1992 and the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement—and setbacks in negotiations on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. In Trade and Protectionism, American and East Asian scholars consider the dangers of this trend for the world economy and especially for East Asian countries.

The authors look at the current global trading system and at the potential threats to East Asian economies from possible regional arrangements, such as separate trading blocks in the Western Hemisphere and Europe. They cover trade between the United States and Japan, Korea and Japan, and Japanese-East Asian trade policies; trade in agriculture and semiconductors and the frictions that have jeopardized this trade; and direct foreign investment. The contributors round out the work with discussions of the political economy of protection in Korea and Taiwan and political economy considerations as they affect trade policy in general.

This is the second volume of the National Bureau of Economic Research-East Asia Seminar on Economics. The first volume, The Political Economy of Tax Reform, also edited by Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, addresses tax reform in the global economy.

In recent years the tremendous growth of the service sector—including international trade in services—has outstripped that of manufacturing in many industrialized nations. As the importance of services has grown, economists have begun to focus on policy issues raised by them and have tried to understand what, if any, differences there are between production and delivery of goods and services.

This volume is the first book-length attempt to analyze trade in services in the Asia-Pacific region. Contributors provide overviews of basic issues involved in studying the service sector; investigate the impact of increasing trade in services on the economies of Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong; present detailed analyses of specific service sectors (telecommunications, financial services, international tourism, and accounting); and extend our understanding of trade in services beyond the usual concept (measured in balance of payment statistics) to include indirect services and services undertaken abroad by subsidiaries and affiliates.