Preface
1 Latin America: The Eternal Land of the Future
· The Economic Future of Latin America and the United States
· From the Washington Consensus to the Resurgence of Populism: A Brief Overview
· The Main Argument: A Summary
· A Conceptual Framework: The Economic Prosperity of Nations and the Mechanics of Successful Growth Transitions
PART ONE
A Long Decline: From Independence to the Washington Consensus
2 Latin America’s Decline: A Long Historical View
· A Gradual and Persistent Decline
· The Poverty of Institutions and Long Term Mediocrity
· Currency Crises, Instability and Inflation
· Inequality and Poverty
· So Far from God, and So Close to the United States
3 From the Alliance for Progress to the Washington Consensus
· The Cuban Revolution and the Alliance for Progress
· Protectionism and Social Conditions
· Informality and Unemployment
· Fiscal Profligacy, Monetary Largesse, Instability, and Currency Crises
· Oil Shocks and Debt Crisis
· The Lost Decade, Market Reforms, and the Washington Consensus
PART TWO
The Washington Consensus and the Recurrence of Crises, 1989-2002
4 Fractured Liberalism: Latin America’s Incomplete Reforms
· Institutions and Economic Performance
· Institutions Interrupted: A Latin American Scorecard
· Economic Policy Reform: A Decalogue Manqué
· Summing Up: Mediocre Policies and Weak Institutions
5 Chile, Latin America’s Brightest Star
· Chile under President Salvador Allende, 1970–73
· The Chicago Boys and Chile’s Trip to the Market
· The Chicago Boys, Politics, and Labor Unions
· Chile: A Case of a Successful Growth Transition
· Pragmatism, Markets, and Success
· Restricting Speculative Capital Flows
· The Key Role of Institutions and the Failure of Copycats
· Chile’s Legacy
6 So Far from God: Mexico’s Tequila Crisis of 1994
· The Mexican Miracle: A Mirage?
· The Exchange Rate, Capital Flows, and External Imbalances
· 1994: A Recurrent Nightmare
· The Aftermath of the Tequila Crisis
· Lessons from the Mexican Crisis
· Pegging the Currency: A Recurrent Latin American Mistake
7 The Mother of All Crises: Argentina, 2001–2002
· A Long History of Instability and High Inflation
· Please, Tie My Hands!
· The Mexican Crisis and the Weaknesses of the Convertibility Law
· The Fixed Exchange Rate Becomes a Straitjacket
· The Inability to Withstand External Shocks in 1999–2001
· Another Foretold Disaster
· Devaluation, Default, and Pesification
· Social Costs, Recovery, and Populism
PART THREE
The Populist Reaction
8 Populism, Neopopulism, and Inequality in the New Century
· Populism and Neopopulism
· The Populist Cycle: From Euphoria to Regret
· The Polices of Neopopulism
· Inequality and Neopopulism in Latin America
· Openness, Globalization, Inequality, and Social Conditions
· Income Disparities and Education
· Populism and Political Institutions
· Neopopulism and Neoconstitutionalism
9 Chávez’s Challenge and Lula’s Response
· Hugo Chávez and the Path to Bolivarian Populism
· The Bolivarian Revolution and Its Disappointment
· Chávez and Social Conditions
· The Surprising Absence of Populism in Brazil
· Stability and Social Programs in Lula’s Brazil
· Lula’s Pragmatism and Chávez’s Ideology
· Brazil’s Challenges in the Post-Lula Era
PART FOUR
Challenges for the Future
10 A Three-Speed Latin America for the Twenty-first Century
· The Institutions of the State and the Narcotics Trade
· Three Latin American Clusters for the Twenty-first Century
· A Final Word
Notes
Bibliography
Index