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Discerning Experts
The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy
Michael Oppenheimer, Naomi Oreskes, Dale Jamieson, Keynyn Brysse, Jessica O’Reilly, Matthew Shindell, and Milena Wazeck
University of Chicago Press, 2019
Discerning Experts assesses the assessments that many governments rely on to help guide environmental policy and action. Through their close look at environmental assessments involving acid rain, ozone depletion, and sea level rise, the authors explore how experts deliberate and decide on the scientific facts about problems like climate change. They also seek to understand how the scientists involved make the judgments they do, how the organization and management of assessment activities affects those judgments, and how expertise is identified and constructed.
 
Discerning Experts uncovers factors that can generate systematic bias and error,  and  recommends how the process can be improved. As the first study of the internal workings of large environmental assessments, this book reveals their  strengths and weaknesses,  and explains what assessments can—and cannot—be expected to contribute to public policy and the common good.
 
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Ozone Diplomacy
New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet
Richard Elliot Benedick
Harvard University Press, 1991

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Ozone Diplomacy
New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet, Enlarged Edition
Richard Elliot Benedick
Harvard University Press, 1998

Hailed in the Foreign Service Journal as “a landmark book that should command the attention of every serious student of American diplomacy, international environmental issues, or the art of negotiation,” and cited in Nature for its “worthwhile insights on the harnessing of science and diplomacy,” the first edition of Ozone Diplomacy offered an insider’s view of the politics, economics, science, and diplomacy involved in creating the precedent-setting treaty to protect the Earth: the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer.

The first edition ended with a discussion of the revisions to the protocol in 1990 and offered lessons for global diplomacy regarding the then just-maturing climate change issue. Now Richard Benedick—a principal architect and the chief U.S. negotiator of the historic treaty—expands the ozone story, bringing us to the eve of the tenth anniversary of the Montreal Protocol. He describes subsequent negotiations to deal with unexpected major scientific discoveries and important amendments adding new chemicals and accelerating the phaseout schedules. Implementing the revised treaty has forced the protocol’s signatories to confront complex economic and political problems, including North–South financial and technology transfer issues, black markets for banned CFCs, revisionism, and industry’s willingness and ability to develop new technologies and innovative substitutes. In his final chapter Benedick offers a new analysis applying the lessons of the ozone experience to ongoing climate change negotiations.

Ozone Diplomacy has frequently been cited as the definitive book on the most successful environment treaty, and is essential reading for those concerned about the future of our planet.

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The Ozone Layer
From Discovery to Recovery
Guy P. Brasseur
American Meteorological Society, 2020
From the discovery of ozone in the eighteenth century, through the late twentieth-century international agreements to protect humanity from the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere, Guy P. Brasseur traces the evolution of our scientific knowledge on air quality issues and stratospheric chemistry and dynamics. The history of ozone research is marked by typical examples of the scientific method at work, perfectly illustrating how knowledge progresses. Hypotheses are contested and then eventually accepted or rejected; truths once believed to be universal and permanent can be called into question; and debates and disagreements between scientists are settled by information from laboratory and field experiments. Of course, the scientific method can also lead to new observations—in this case, the discovery of the ozone hole. This finding took researchers by surprise, leading to new investigations and research programs.

This first complete study of ozone research demonstrates the key role fundamental research plays in solving global environmental, climate, and human health problems. More importantly, it shows that the scientific method works. Convincing decision makers of research results that do not correspond to their values, or to the interests of certain business groups, stands to be the highest hurdle in using science to benefit humanity. Students, early-career scientists, and even specialists who do not know much about the history of their field will benefit from this big picture view, offered by a researcher who has played leadership roles in stewarding this science through decades of discovery.
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Worst-Case Scenarios
Cass R. Sunstein
Harvard University Press, 2009

Nuclear bombs in suitcases, anthrax bacilli in ventilators, tsunamis and meteors, avian flu, scorchingly hot temperatures: nightmares that were once the plot of Hollywood movies are now frighteningly real possibilities. How can we steer a path between willful inaction and reckless overreaction?

Cass Sunstein explores these and other worst-case scenarios and how we might best prevent them in this vivid, illuminating, and highly original analysis. Singling out the problems of terrorism and climate change, Sunstein explores our susceptibility to two opposite and unhelpful reactions: panic and utter neglect. He shows how private individuals and public officials might best respond to low-probability risks of disaster—emphasizing the need to know what we will lose from precautions as well as from inaction. Finally, he offers an understanding of the uses and limits of cost–benefit analysis, especially when current generations are imposing risks on future generations.

Throughout, Sunstein uses climate change as a defining case, because it dramatically illustrates the underlying principles. But he also discusses terrorism, depletion of the ozone layer, genetic modification of food, hurricanes, and worst-case scenarios faced in our ordinary lives. Sunstein concludes that if we can avoid the twin dangers of overreaction and apathy, we will be able to ameliorate if not avoid future catastrophes, retaining our sanity as well as scarce resources that can be devoted to more constructive ends.

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