The Ohio State University Press, 2002 eISBN: 978-0-8142-7524-5 | Cloth: 978-0-8142-0898-4 | Paper: 978-0-8142-5094-5 Library of Congress Classification JZ1234.B84 2002 Dewey Decimal Classification 327.101
TOC
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTENTS
Preface
ONE
Predicting Politics
Organization of the Book
A Shift from Realism?
Why Game Theory Analysis?
Social Forces as Context
Democratization
Prosperity
Population Growth and Immigration
Conclusion
TWO
Path Interdependence: An Illustration
Text of the Concordat of Worms
Privilege of Pope Calixtus II
Edict of the Emperor Henry V
The Power of the Pope
A Brief Historical Review
The Model
Implications for Pope and King
Narrative Account of Evidence
The Selection of Bishops: An Empirical Assessment
Summary
THREE
Tools for Predicting Politics
Logical Foundation of the Model
Selecting from Among Policy Proposals
Perceptual Analysis
Estimating the Model
Developing the Data
Model Output
Prediction and International Relations
Limitations
FOUR
The End of the Cold War: Predicting an Emergent Property
Application of the Model to Predicting the Cold War's Evolution
Predicting the Cold War's End
Counterfactual Histories
Conclusions
FIVE
Global Democratization
Helsinki: The New International Environment
The Global Swing toward Democracy
EUM and Governance, 1980–2000
BUM and the Future of Democratization
Random Shocks and Robustness
SIX
Democratization and Domestic Pressures
Simulating Russia's Future
Base Case Analysis
Random Shocks
Simulating China's Future
Base Case Analysis
The Base Case for Likely Chinese Governance
Individual Political Winners and Losers
China's Governance and Random Shocks
SEVEN
War in the Future
Relationships among Social Forces: Democracy and Income
Relationship among Social Forces: Democracy and Immigration