The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017
by Eric Heginbotham, David A. Shlapak, David R. Frelinger, Burgess Laird, Kyle Brady, Lyle J. Morris, Michael Nixon, Forrest E. Morgan, Jacob L. Heim, Jeff Hagen, Sheng Li, Jeffrey Engstrom, Martin C. Libicki and Paul DeLuca
RAND Corporation, 2015
eISBN: 978-0-8330-8227-5 | Paper: 978-0-8330-8219-0
Library of Congress Classification UA835.H427 2015
Dewey Decimal Classification 355.033551
eISBN: 978-0-8330-8227-5 | Paper: 978-0-8330-8219-0
Library of Congress Classification UA835.H427 2015
Dewey Decimal Classification 355.033551
ABOUT THIS BOOK | TOC
ABOUT THIS BOOK
A RAND study analyzed Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) from 1996 to 2017, finding that trends in most, but not all, areas run strongly against the United States. While U.S. aggregate power remains greater than China’s, distance and geography affect outcomes. China is capable of challenging U.S. military dominance on its immediate periphery—and its reach is likely to grow in the years ahead.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Contents
Figures
Tables
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Chapter One: Introduction
The State of the Literature
Levels of Analysis
Methods and Features of the Analysis
Scope, Boundaries, and Parameters
Exclusively Open-Source Analysis
Summary of Findings
The Development of China’s Military
China’s Military in 1996
Modernization Since 1996
Development of the U.S. Military Since 1996
The U.S. Military in 1996
U.S. Force Development, 1996–2015
China in U.S. Defense Policy
Chinese Military Thought on the Use of Precision Missiles
Force Structure
Development of the Second Artillery, 1996–2015
Estimating the 2017 Inventory
Operational Analysis: Taiwan Scenario
Runway Attacks
Cruise Missile Attacks on Infrastructure
Operational Implications
Operational Analysis: Spratly Islands Scenario
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Four: Scorecard 2: Air Campaigns Over Taiwan and the Spratly Islands
Methodology
Force Structure Inputs
Force Capability Inputs
Taiwan Scenario Results
Spratly Islands Scenario
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Five: Scorecard 3: U.S. Penetration of Chinese Airspace
Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missiles
Air Interceptors
U.S. SEAD Forces
Standoff Strike Weapons
Penetrating Chinese Defenses
Air Defense Penetration in the Taiwan Scenario
Air Defense Penetration in the Spratly Scenario
Lethal Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses
Methodology
SEAD Results for the Taiwan Scenario
SEAD Results for the Spratly Islands Scenario
U.S. ISR and SAM “Hide” Tactics
Lethal SEAD Summary
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Six: Scorecard 4: U.S. Capability to Attack Chinese Air Bases
Legacy Bombers
Stealth Bombers
Long-Range Missiles
U.S. Bomber Access to Chinese Air Bases
Identifying Air Bases
Taiwan Scenario Air Bases
Spratly Islands Scenario Air Bases
Attacking Runways
Taiwan Scenario Outcomes
Summary of Runway Attack
Attacking Aircraft on the Ground
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Seven: Scorecard 5: Chinese Anti-Surface Warfare
China’s Over-the-Horizon Surveillance Systems
Cueing: OTH Radar and Naval Ocean Surveillance Systems
Space-Based Imaging Assets
C4ISR Capabilities
Countering Chinese OTH ISR
The Chinese Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile Threat
Executing the ASBM End-to-End Kill Chain
ASBM Summary and Future Developments
The Chinese Anti-Ship Cruise Missile Threat
Air-Launched ASCMs
Surface and Submarine-Launched ASCMs
Developments in U.S. Naval Air and Missile Defenses
The Chinese Submarine Fleet
U.S. Anti-Submarine Warfare Assets
Modeling Chinese and U.S. Sonar Performance
Submarine Model Results
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Eight: Scorecard 6: U.S. Anti-Surface Warfare Capabilities Versus Chinese Naval Ships
PLA Amphibious Fleet
U.S. Submarine Campaign Against PLA Amphibious Fleet
U.S. Air Strikes Versus PLA Amphibious Invasion Fleet
U.S. Surface Strikes Versus PLA Amphibious Invasion Fleet
Spratly Islands Scenario
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Nine: Scorecard 7: U.S. Counterspace Capabilities Versus Chinese Space Systems
U.S. and Chinese Orbital Infrastructures
U.S. Counterspace Versus Chinese Space Capabilities
Dedicated Counterspace Systems
Dual-Use Capabilities
Resultant Risks for Chinese Space Capabilities
Scorecard Coding
Chinese Efforts to Develop Counterspace Capabilities
Chinese Laser Developments
Kinetic Anti-Satellite and Ballistic Missile Defense Capabilities
Radio-Frequency Jammers and Other Capabilities
Resultant Risks for U.S. Space Capabilities
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Eleven: Scorecard 9: U.S. and Chinese Cyberwarfare Capabilities
China’s Operational Cyberwarfare Against Logistics Targets
China’s Operational Cyberwarfare Against SCADA Systems
China’s Operational Cyberwarfare Against Command-and-Control Systems
China’s Operational Cyberwarfare Against Weapon Systems
U.S. Operational Cyberwarfare Capabilities
Chinese Strategic Cyberwarfare Activities
U.S. Strategic Cyberwarfare Capabilities
Comparative Military Cyberwarfare Capabilities
Doctrine
Organization
Materiel
Network Management
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Twelve: Scorecard 10: U.S. and Chinese Strategic Nuclear Stability
Methodology
Alert Levels
Warhead Salvo Success
Targeting
China and the United States in 1996
China and the United States in 2003
China and the United States in 2010
China and the United States in 2017
Conclusions
Scorecard Coding
Chapter Thirteen: The Receding Frontier of U.S. Dominance
Scorecard Summary Findings
Trend Lines Are Moving Against the United States
Trends Vary by Mission Area
China Can Pose Problems for the United States Without Catching Up
Coding the Scorecard Results
Taiwan Scenario
Spratly Islands Scenario
Conclusions
Chapter Fourteen: Implications and Recommendations
Shaping Perceptions
Refocusing Procurement and Force Structure
Concepts of Operations
U.S. Diplomacy and the Search for Strategic Depth
Minimizing the Risks of Vertical Escalation
Conclusions and Suggestions for Future Research
Bibliography
See other books on: Armed Forces | Aviation & Space | Military policy | National security | Naval
See other titles from RAND Corporation
Nearby on shelf for Armies: Organization, distribution, military situation / By region or country:
|
9781477324547
9780674728936
