Cover
Title Page
Copyright
About This Report
Summary
Contents
Figures and Tables
Research Objectives and Questions
An Example
Definitions and Scope
The Policy Stakes
Research Approach
U.S. Perspectives on Competition
Russian Perspectives on Competition
Comparing U.S. and Russian Perspectives
CHAPTER THREE: A Framework for Understanding Deterrence in Competition
Malign Activities: What Is to Be Deterred?
Overall Logic of Deterrence and Escalation in Competition
How Elements of Forward Posture Deter and Provoke
How Intervening Factors Deter and Provoke
Summary of Framework for Understanding Deterrence and Escalation
Research Design: Evaluating Propositions on Deterrence and Escalation in Competition
Introduction
Analytic Framework
Results
Conclusion
Introduction
The Iran Crisis, 1946–1947
Spiraling Competition in the Horn of Africa, 1952–1977
The Euromissile Crisis, 1979–1983
Escalation to the Russo-Georgian War, 2001–2008
U.S. Posture Changes in Northeastern Europe, 2014–2019
Conclusion: The Case Studies in Comparison
CHAPTER SIX: Scenario-Based Analysis
Scenario Design
Insights from Scenarios
Conclusion
Summary of Findings
Application of the Analysis to Specific Posture Options
Recommendations
A. Workshop and Interview Participants
B. Technical Discussion of Quantitative Analysis
Abbreviations
References
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